Why does climate change keep appearing in the same breath as Taiwan in China’s diplomatic communiqués? Drawing on an original database of Chinese official readouts from 2009 to 2025, this talk traces a striking pattern: when Beijing meets with the leaders of small island states — the countries most existentially threatened by rising seas, and historically the last redoubt of Taiwan’s diplomatic partners — offers of climate cooperation are systematically paired with affirmations of the one-China principle, and increasingly with China’s positions on Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and the South China Sea. The pattern sharpens at moments of geopolitical contest: after recognition switches in the Solomon Islands, Kiribati, and Nauru, and in the wake of AUKUS. Most recently, climate has begun migrating into the framework of Xi Jinping’s Global Security Initiative, folding environmental cooperation into China’s alternative security order. The talk examines what this “bundling” reveals about how China converts the climate vulnerability of small states into diplomatic leverage — and what it means for Taiwan’s shrinking international space and for Western climate engagement in the Pacific and Caribbean.
